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AT&T Reorg Could Be the First Step Toward Layoffs

Source: gigaom.com

AT&T’s move to reorganize itself into four business units is likely a precursor to layoffs, according to sources within the company who asked not to be named. The reorg comes as AT&T tries to adjust to the realities of the credit crunch, a diminishing access line and DSL business, and increased headcount caused by two large mergers in the last three years.

News of the reorg, which will see the creation of consumer, business, infrastructure and diversified products business units, trickled out yesterday. John Stankey, the former president of AT&T’s telecom operations, will head the infrastructure division; Ray Wilkins will remain CEO of the diversified businesses unit; and Ronald Spears will head the business unit. Ralph de la Vega, currently the CEO of AT&T’s wireless business, will head up the consumer business, which will contain wireless, broadband and video services. AT&T subsequently confirmed the moves, saying it wants to make consumer products work better across its portfolio of devices.

The reorganization will better align the company as it competes against the cable carriers. Just yesterday we noted how the phone companies have a hard time attracting customers to their triple-play bundles because of speed issues on DSL lines. Once those broadband connections are upgraded, the ability to combine data, voice, video and wireless for a quadruple play could put the carriers ahead of cable. But in order for that to work, the old division between wireline services, such as U-verse, and wireless needed to come down.

However, as the company streamlines, it’s also likely to find redundancies. Managers inside AT&T expect that they’ll soon get targets for headcount reductions ranging anywhere from 5 percent all the way to 20 percent in some areas of the company (I bet DSL and wireline will be hardest hit). When asked about layoffs via email, AT&T spokesman Marc Bien said, “Regarding headcount, at this time, we have no specific plans for workforce changes related to this new organizational structure.”

Employees believe it’s only a matter of time. News of rising costs related to AT&T struggling to sell its short-term debt, and the recognition that costs still need to be trimmed in the wake of its acquisition by SBC Communications (which then took the AT&T brand) in 2005 and BellSouth in 2006, have many concerned. Earlier this year the carrier announced a workforce reduction of 1.5 percent (about 4,650 workers) in its local phone business, but it still employed 307,550 people as of June 30. I expect that number will drop again soon.

Published on October 1st, 2008 under , , , , , , , , , , ,

No VoIP In New Nokia N-Series Devices? Is Nokia Turning Its Back on VoIP?

Source: gigaom.com

Nokia, the leading handset maker, has been a favorite of ours for two reasons –- it ruthlessly promoted and added Wi-Fi connectivity to its handsets and added VoIP functionality to its devices.

Carriers did not view these technology developments too kindly since it prevented them from extorting exorbitant amounts of cash for costly long distance connections, leading to the rise of mobile-VoIP players such as Truphone, Fring and Gizmo Project.

But now the Finnish giant seems to have developed cold feet, and some of its new handsets, such as the new N78, are not VoIP compatible anymore. Many of these phones are not on the list of Nokia’s VoIP compatible handsets. A reader tipped us off about this apparent change in the latest N-series phones.

…the N78 (and also to affect the forthcoming N96) which is that Nokia has very quietly and seemingly sneakily redacted their built-in VoIP / SIP implementation in all phones that come with Symbian Series 60 3rd generation Feature Pack 2 (otherwise abbreviated as S60 3.2).

I have a N78 lying around so I decided to test it myself. And lo-and-behold none of the VoIP services I am accustomed to using worked. Truphone and Gizmo are two services I typically use and neither of them work.

Ditto for Fring, a VoIP-IM service as well. However, all three worked on the Nokia E71 smart phone. When I asked Nokia if this was true, the company sent me this response, which pretty much admits that is the case, though it didn’t say why.

Nokia Nseries is committed VoIP services as part of its offering. That is why we have included SIP stack and improved the developer VoIP offering in S60 3rd Edition Feature Pack 2 by enhancing the VoIP APIs to improve the call quality, as an example.

A Nokia VoIP client is not included with the Nokia N78 and the Nokia N96 and VoIP solutions based on this particular client such as Gizmo will not work. However, Forum Nokia will cooperate with third-party developers to support them in porting their applications from S60 3.0/3.1 releases to S60 3.2. One example is Fring, whose popular application will be offered via Nokia’s Download! service for the Nokia N96.

Truphone isn’t waiting around for Nokia to do something. A company spokesman told us: “From Truphone’s perspective Nokia has removed the VoIP client from all the N-Series phones for the planned future. We are putting in a replacement client functionality so that existing customers are not orphaned.”

The theory is that Nokia isn’t mucking with E-series devices because they are more enterprise focused. Since VoWLAN is more popular with the corporations, Nokia can’t afford to remove the VoIP functionality. It is one feature that makes the phones more competitive with say Blackberry.

On the consumer front, however, voice-over-WiFi has become a thorn in the side of carriers, as exemplified by actions of carriers such as T-Mobile against VoWiFi-startups such as Truphone. Furthermore, the emergence of 3G has made it easier to route calls over the 3G network.

Funnily enough, the decision to back away from built-in VoIP comes at a time when fixed mobile convergence is finally beginning to gain traction, especially in Europe and Asia. In the U.S., Nokia launched a handset that works with T-Mobile’s Hotspot@Home service.

Nokia has to be taking a lot of heat from carriers over making VoIP easy on its devices. Whichever way you look at it, I think it is a bone-headed move by the company, which should be trying to out-innovate its competitors and be more open in terms of its features.

The decision also brings into question company’s new mantra of being open and open-source friendly. Being open isn’t about releasing some software in open source, but it is about having an open mind. Shutting down a much loved VoIP feature isn’t exactly the right move.

As our reader very aptly wrote:

….does this move by Nokia really appear to be the type of move that is indicative of a culture shift towards open source per the Symbian Foundation? Google is already culturally rooted in open source (its entire infrastructure runs on Linux clusters). I am not so confident about Nokia’s ability to shift to open source…




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Published on August 23rd, 2008 under , , , , , , , , , , ,

Is There Money in Voice APIs?

Source: gigaom.com

I’ve been covering the VoIP space since 2004, and lately it seems like every other press release sent my way is from a company announcing the addition of an application programming interface (API) to its telephony platform. The promise of APIs is that they make it easy to integrate different services — even those provided by different vendors — into a single application. The press release from one carrier even went so far as to claim that its API would “boost innovation and development of new apps exponentially.”

But is simply providing an API to your telephony infrastructure enough to prompt the world to beat a path to your door? Don’t count on it.

To be sure, these APIs are necessary, particularly in the world of voice mashups. Voice mashups combine voice as well as data and applications across multiple systems to create a new, useful service.

One example of a voice mashup is Twitterfone, a free service that takes your voice, converts it to text and sends it to Twitter. MAXroam provides the overall infrastructure and inbound telephone numbers, Dial2Do does the speech-to-text part, and Zong provides some inbound SIP termination. APIs are needed all around — including on the voice side — to make this happen seamlessly.

Voice mashups can be useful in the business space. They can save a ton of money, and can help to enforce both business process quality and consistency. Imagine calling an airline and speaking to an interactive voice response (IVR) system. A certain percentage of calls could easily be handled by the IVR, which can ask all the correct questions to ensure customers have the right information.

There are, of course, times when speaking with a live human being is necessary. So imagine that all the data collected by the IVR about your call is then sent to a customer service representative so that by the time the two of you are connected, they already know exactly why you’re calling. The call could even be routed to a particular rep based on the reason you’re calling.

This is the power of a voice mashup — the ability to treat voice and data interchangeably. While large companies have been able to afford the cost of developing these custom voice mashups, tools and services are now becoming available that let you make your own.

Jaduka started out by providing a voice API to their telephony infrastructure, which is maintained by their parent company, NetworkIP. But Jaduka quickly discovered that while developers signed up for the API, few were actually using it to launch services. The company now offers customized voice-enabled applications to enterprise customers.

Jaduka’s customers currently use over 4 million minutes a month, a number that is trending upward. But that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the more than half a billion minutes a month their parent company serves.

Ifbyphone provides a number of voice-related small business services as well. They also offer a voice API, but it’s essentially driven by web forms, which makes it easy to integrate their telephony services into any web site without needing to be a programmer.

And while not everyone agrees that what Ifbyphone provides would qualify as a proper API, it does offer a range of useful services to small businesses, such as interactive voice response, intelligent call routing and voice broadcast. They are all designed to help small businesses interact directly with their customers in the most efficient manner possible.

Indeed, APIs enable some great solutions. But APIs aren’t solutions in and of themselves. Nor do they necessarily make money.

Consider Ribbit, a company whose business model is to make telephony available through APIs. The thinking is that they’ll make their money on revenue shares as developers create interesting applications.

If Jaduka’s experience is any indication, however, I don’t expect Ribbit will last too much longer without a complete change of strategy. Ribbit might have 4,000 developers, but how many of them are actually making applications on which Ribbit is able to share revenue? I don’t put a lot of stock in the rumor that BT has purchased Ribbit for $55 million.

Even where you’ve got more than just an API, such as the case with Jaduka and Ifbyphone, the prospects for making a pot of money just don’t seem that great. The combined revenue of Jaduka and parent company NetworkIP is thought to be north of $150 million a year. Assuming Jaduka’s share of minutes per month also translates into share of revenue, that suggests Jaduka is responsible for $1.2 million of the revenue. Ifbyphone would not disclose customer numbers or revenues.

I think the market has a lot of potential, but so far, that’s about it. Go ahead and make those telephony APIs available, but don’t expect the world to beat a path to your door, and don’t expect to make any money just by publishing APIs. Figure out who your customers are, find out what problems they have, and develop solutions to meet their needs. APIs can certainly be a part of the overall strategy, but relying on APIs alone to generate revenue is a pipe dream.

7 Ways to VoIP From Your Mobile Phone

Source: gigaom.com

While the emergence of VoIP, or voice-over-Internet protocol, technology has already helped push down the cost of making a phone call, now it’s starting to have a deflationary impact on the world of mobile, where call charges remain stubbornly high.

In the meantime, the ongoing adoption of 3G broadband and the inclusion of Wi-Fi in many high-end phones is drawing a growing amount of attention to mobile VoIP services. Indeed, research firm Disruptive Analysis predicts that the number of VoIP-over-3G users will top 250 million by the end of 2012 — from virtually zero in 2007.

We at GigaOM are constantly tinkering with these mobile services, so we’ve put together a list of seven mobile VoIP apps that we think you’ll find handy.

Skype Options

Skype MobileService: Skype Mobile
Platform/Network: Java-based application that works on 50 popular phones from Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola and Samsung. Can be used on numerous cellular data networks.
Cost: Free
Features: Chatting (including with a group), presence settings (offline, online, do not disturb), and Skype-to-Skype calls (including SkypeIn).
Our Opinion: If your phone is supported, Skype Mobile is a great way to add Skype chatting and calls to it. Though it would be nice if the Skype application weren’t written in Java, as these applications are often sluggish and unstable.

SkypephoneService: 3 Skypephone
Platform/Network: Uses a specialized handset. Currently available in the UK, Italy, Austria, Hong Kong, Australia, Ireland, Denmark and Sweden.
Cost: The phone costs £49.99 (about $98) and can be used on a pre-paid basis. Calls cost nothing if they’re made from Skype.
Features: Free Skype-to-Skype mobile calls and the ability to conduct Skype IM conversations, all without touching your computer.
Our Opinion: The 3 Skypephone is best suited for those who need a few monthly mobile minutes and wish to talk/IM to their Skype friends along the way. The pre-paid feature makes it an attractive and inexpensive option for Skype chatters in the geographies it serves.

iSkoot logoService: iSkoot
Platform/Network: Mobile handsets such as BlackBerry, Nokia, Windows Mobile and Palm OS models. Also works on GSM networks.
Cost: Modest to expensive, based on usage. Because iSkoot is a hybrid VoIP/GSM service, it uses SMS and mobile minutes when making and receiving calls or Skype IM messages.
Features: SkypeIn and Skype-to-Skype calls, Skype IM messages.
Our Opinion: iSkoot is a good option for keeping in touch with your Skype contacts. However, I would look at other software applications that just use data to send Skype SMS and Skype voice traffic.

Mobile VoIP Players

Truphone logoService: Truphone
Platform/Network: Nokia handsets
Cost: Incoming free calls while on the Truphone network, low per-minute rates while on a GSM network. Outgoing calls are billed at very low per minute rates.
Features: Truphone offers free calls, SMS and voice mail while logged into the Truphone network via Wi-Fi. Otherwise, Truphone forwards calls to your mobile handset and you pay a low per-minute charge.
Our Opinion: With its smart forwarding options, Truphone is particularly useful for international travelers. Whether you’re on Wi-Fi or just your normal GSM network, you can be reached via your Truphone number no matter where you are (charges apply in certain cases, see their site for details). For times when Wi-Fi is not available, Truphone just released Truphone Anywhere, which utilizes local gateways for outgoing calls at low per-minute charges. I have trialed the service by forwarding calls from my Truphone number to my cell phone and the call quality was fantastic; voices were indistinguishable from any other cell phone call. A Truphone-to-Truphone VoIP call yielded even higher voice quality.

FringService: Fring
Platform/Network: Nokia/Symbian handsets, Widows Mobile, iPhone (pre-release beta)
Cost: Free
Features: Allows you to make VoIP calls on any SIP network, Skype or to other Fring users. Additionally, Fring is a multi-protocol IM client that will allow you to chat with your buddies on Skype, MSN, ICQ, Google Talk, Twitter, AIM and Yahoo.
Our Opinion: I have used Fring to make SIP and Skype voice calls, and over EDGE the call is choppy and hard to understand. However, Wi-Fi provides enough bandwidth to make Fring calls clear and understandable. I wouldn’t say the quality is fantastic, but it is very comparable to a normal cell phone call.

logoService: Talkonaut
Platform/Network: Available for Java-based phones, Symbian and Windows Mobile
Cost: Free
Features: Talkonaut offers free VoIP and IM chatting. For instant messaging, the application supports Google Talk, ICQ, AIM, and Yahoo. Talkonaut can also use SIP for VoIP calling.
Our Opinion: Talkonaut is a Russian offering and is still very new. The application was quite unstable on my Nokia N82 handset. With iffy performance and a very rusty user interface, I would recommend looking at other applications for this functionality, namely Fring.

NimbuzzService: Nimbuzz
Platform/Network: Java program, Symbian; an iPhone version is coming soon.
Cost: Free
Features: Allows you to engage in IM conversations and conduct VoIP calls, as well as to share media such as photos and video. Nimbuzz also allows for client-to-client calls and has widgets enabling calls to originate from Facebok and MySpace. Compatible with Skype, Google Talk, AOL Instant Messenger, Windows Live Messenger, Yahoo, MySpace, Facebook and Jabber IM networks.
Our Opinion: The Symbian application is very responsive and easy to use. A VoIP call originating from my Facebook page to Nimbuzz over a Wi-Fi connection sounded good — just as good as any call over a GSM network.

Gizmo5Service: Gizmo5 (formerly Gizmo Project)
Platform/Network: Nokia Symbian handsets, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, Nokia Tablets
Cost: Free for VoIP calls, low per-minute charge to call landlines and to SMS to mobiles.
Features: Gizmo5 allows you to conduct voice calls to other Gizmo5 users and grants IM conversations with friends on Gizmo5, MSN, AIM, Yahoo and Jabber.
Our Opinion: Gizmo5 is a great competitor to Skype, just not as established or well-known. They have wisely developed their client software for many platforms including numerous mobile phones, and on both Mac and PC. VoIP call quality is stellar when calling between clients, as well as to landline/mobile phones.

Global Telcos Plotting a Skype Rival?

Source: gigaom.com

AT&T, in conjunction with some 10-15 incumbent telecom carriers — British Telecom, Deutsche Telecom and NTT among them — is plotting to launch a Skype competitor, according to a research report issued this morning by ThinkEquity analyst Anton Wahlman.

This is Wahlman’s theory for now, but his track record is full of theories that have eventually been proven right. For instance, he once issued a report that outlined 16 reasons why Cisco should buy Scientific Atlanta — which the networking giant went on to do, for $6.9 billion. For that reason alone, I put in a call to AT&T to get the lowdown, but all they would offer was the boilerplate phrase, “We can’t comment on this type of speculation.”

Anyway, back to the Skype competitor! Essentially what Wahlman is saying is that incumbents are going to offer a VoIP client that will work on the incumbent broadband/3G wireless pipe, and will use a backend platform that will allow folks to make free voice calls to anyone who’s logged into it.

Much the same way as Skype-to-Skype calls are free, incumbents could use their platform to keep calls from each other’s network free. The plan could help them avoid the termination charges and still make money when the calls go off the network to, say, a rival’s phone service or wireless network. “We believe that they will have to use a common client and common software platform in order to make this work,” Wahlman said.

Isn’t it too little, too late? Realistically speaking, there’s a slim chance of anyone catching up with Skype, which keeps adding subscribers and which, despite being mismanaged by its acquirer, has a momentum all its own. “Better late than never,” was Wahlman’s take.

Here are some key points about this yet-unnamed proposed Skype killer:

* To be launched in 2009.
* The concept will be extended to mobile phones eventually.
* The service would run on the carrier broadband connection, and also on top of the 3G/4G wireless broadband pipe.
* The service will be used as a lure for selling other services such as video.
* The incumbent consortium partners can brand this service any way they want.

Big shifts in the telecom landscape are forcing the carriers to think along these lines, Wahlman said in a chat earlier this morning. First, carriers are reluctantly facing up to the fact that voice has become a losing proposition. Thanks to competition from folks like Skype, voice is becoming essentially free. Second, they are losing fixed-line customers with an alarming rapidity.

As I have noted previously on several occasions, the carriers are in a race against time — these line losses basically make their plans to sell other services such as broadband and video impossible, thereby risking their future plans all together. The cost of winning back the customer who switches to, say, cable, VoIP, or a rival’s wireless service is just too high.

In the past, carriers have merely taken half-measures to address the voice-for-free problem. So this is radical new thinking: If voice is a losing business, why shouldn’t the carriers cannibalize it themselves, then sell other services, including video? As Wahlman noted, “Robust data connection is the most valuable service the carriers sell.”

Amen to that. I just find it hard to believe that the dinosaurs are finally getting jiggy with this new way of thinking.

Published on May 6th, 2008 under , , , , , ,

Here Comes Trouble: A Social Directory

Source: gigaom.com

The declining relevance of telephone directories erased 95 percent of publisher RH Donnelley’s market capitalization over the last 12 months. Although Google’s free 1-800-GOOG-411 service may attract some share of the directory assistance business, the crux of the problem lies with the diminished standing of wired telephones in an increasingly crowded communications landscape. The demise of paper directories does not, however, mean there exists a clear alternative to accommodate the growing list of communication coordinates most people juggle. A “social directory” created by merging the telephone directory with the social networking model may provide a way forward.

Given the open-ended nature of the information that gets indexed, search engines remain poorly suited to the task of finding contact information. Success depends on a cleverly structured query; search engines do not, after all, distinguish contact information from other types of information. But while a directory with a relatively finite and narrow data set (e.g. contact information) would greatly increase the probability of success, the process of creating directories still awaits an Internet upgrade.

The standard model for directories fails with respect to mobile phones, email addresses and instant messaging screen names. Posting the Yellow Pages online retains the same city and state search limitations of the paper directories, and the infrequent publishing cycle of directories becomes unworkable at the current pace with which communication coordinates get added and subtracted. Further, the growth in communication options makes it impractical to rely on a single service provider directory. What makes much more sense in our Internet-heavy world is a user-generated directory in which individuals own and update their own listing.

The lack of a directory for mobile phone numbers traces to the fear of unwanted calls. A directory that supports authentication along the lines of social networks solves this problem. Keeping your number secret and employing Caller ID are poor substitutes for actually controlling who can call you. The social directory could implement an invite authentication process like any other social network. People already include some contact information in their social network profiles, but a purpose-built social directory could offer additional communication functionality.

The social directory represents a far more elegant solution than that of spamming friends with requests to update contact information through services like Plaxo. The social directory could make a social circle accessible via clickable links while hiding the actual contact information. Rather than giving out a telephone number or email address to a new acquaintance, users of a social directory would associate their listing with keywords (such as “plumber” or “dog lover”).

As the number of communication options increases, so does the burden of managing contact information, yet Internet-enabled directory options remain lacking. Google’s 60 percent share of Internet searches gives the company both gatekeeper status in the information Internet — not to mention a rich market capitalization. However, Google’s revenue represents less than a third of what the declining telephone directories generate in the U.S. alone. Riches await the infocom company that achieves gatekeeper status for the Internet’s communications applications.

Published on March 28th, 2008 under , , , ,

The GigaOM Interview: Qwest CEO & Chairman Edward Mueller

Source: gigaom.com

This past week I got a chance to catch up with Edward Mueller, CEO & Chairman of Qwest, the smallest of the Baby Bells, which competes with its bigger brethren, AT&T and Verizon, in the long-distance, business and government markets.

Mueller, who at one time was CEO and president of Ameritech (now part of AT&T), replaced Richard Notebaert in August 2007.

Since then he has been quietly trying to shore up the Mountain Bells, forging alliances with the likes of DirecTV and making plans for a broadband future. My overall impression from our conversation was that Mueller is being very cautious and is loathe to making sudden moves.

From expanding data center capacity to adding new business lines, Qwest is staying true to its financial realities. The company, which posted $13.8 billion in sales for the full-year 2007 period wants to be “nimble & efficient,” Mueller explained. Here are edited excerpts from our conversation:

Om Malik: Your first few months at Qwest have been awfully quiet. What have you guys been up to?

Edward Mueller: We have laid out a plan and are finally putting meat on the bones. We want to be nimble and efficient. We are focused on our three core businesses — wholesale, small business and consumer. We are now one of the three picks for the government network (Networx), so I like our position. If we can get a wireless partner, we can do well.

OM: Why partner when you can buy yourself a wireless company? Sprint and Alltel are two that come to mind.

MUELLER: We are not looking to buy a wireless company at this time, and frankly buying Alltel and Sprint will be a reach for us. All we want to do is partner with a national wireless player where we can rebrand and remarket their service to our customer base. We are ambivalent about the technology but we want a partner with retail presence.

OM: What are your thoughts on wireless broadband? Also why not buy or build your own wireless broadband network?

MUELLER: Wireless broadband is going to be the biggest part of wireless and voice will ride on this network. I think it is going to be a robust network. But to play in this business your network has to be national and that is very expensive for us. We are a good partner for others for providing access to customers. That is what we are good at.

OM: What are your broadband plans? Any fiber-to-the-home plans?

MUELLER: We are expanding our FTTN network, and will soon offer 20 Megabits/second and eventually 40 Megabits per second using pair bonding. We are building this out and spending $300 million on it. The trial we are running in Colorado Springs has had a good uptake and customers are paying for the higher speed service. (Editor’s note: At a meeting with Wall Street analysts, Mueller said Qwest can make a billion dollars from broadband.)

OM: What are your video plans?

MUELLER: We are not going to offer broadcast television, but instead will offer video on demand and Internet video. We have a partnership with DirecTV and it is our desire that we provide uplink service for their video-on-demand service.

OM: What do you make of the current housing downturn? Qwest’s geographical footprint was where there was a housing bubble — Phoenix and Colorado, for example. Is this impacting your business?

MUELLER: We don’t comment on the financials. I think the economy is cyclical and I don’t think we have to change too much. We have a plan and we are going to execute against that.

Published on March 17th, 2008 under , ,

Truphone Featured In iLocus

Source: andyabramson.blogs.com

Longtime VoIP industry folks know the online publication, iLocus. Well it’s still around and still a useful source for information about new and emerging companies as well as agents of change in the telecom industry.

This week they published an interview with Truphone’s CEO, James Tagg on the prospects for Mobile VoIP.

Published on March 12th, 2008 under , , , , , ,

Here Comes Trouble: Saving Big Iron in Telecom

Source: gigaom.com

The migration of value from hardware to software transformed startup Micro-Soft into monopoly Microsoft between 1975 and 2000. A similar transformation continues to gain momentum in telecom, with software innovation displacing big iron as the primary source of competitive advantage. The telephone network operates in a manner quite analogous to the time-share model displaced by the PC, which means communication may soon only require Internet access and a communication device, not the permission of AT&T.

The most recent quarterly results from the telcos starkly demonstrate this reality, with year-over-year declines in access lines of roughly 10 percent. Displacement by cell phones, cable VoIP, and the waning need for second lines (e.g. fax, dialup Internet, etc.) are driving this decline — in other words, a collapse in usage. It should come as no surprise to anyone paying attention to how many times they pick up a telephone that the FCC’s annual trends in telephony service statistics show a 40 percent drop in telephone network minutes since 2000.

Telecom represents an anomaly among technology-driven industries. There exists no equivalent to Moore’s Law. The quality of a telephone call between neighbors in 2008 differs very little from the same call in 1958. Reliability, audio quality, and even the telephone itself remain largely unchanged. This makes the industry even more vulnerable than the computing time-share business, where companies like Digital Equipment delivered annual cost performance improvements when the PC arrived on the scene.

Verizon’s VoIP patent lawsuits only accelerate these trends. The telcos enjoy very high margins on the $7-to-$10 per subscriber that comes via the likes of Vonage, Cox and Charter; legal successes hasten the pace of work to shut off this revenue. The cable companies can pursue settlement-free peering of voice traffic between each other. People with SIP-based broadband phones get voice functionality without touching the telephone network. The telcos have still not recovered lost revenue from the last group of competitors (i.e CLEC’s) defeated in the courtroom.

The to-do list for telco-free communication nirvana parallels the developments that broke the grip of time-share computing. The wannabe infocom industry needs compelling applications that accelerate adoption a la the spreadsheet and desktop publishing. These compelling applications seem unlikely without a communication operating system analog to MS-DOS that simplifies the task of hardware interaction and resource allocation. The infocom industry needs to produce compelling devices that go beyond features and functionality already available from the telcos.

The telephone companies still control key inputs in Internet access and backbone capacity, but discouraging new communication applications gets problematic as dependence on data revenue grows. A more enlightened approach may prove more successful. FM did not entirely eliminate AM radio. TV did not entirely obsolete radio. Mainframe computing remained important for applications requiring high reliability, and the telephone network seems likely to remain the most reliable means of delivering E911 functionality. Consider the example of IBM’s contribution to the demise of time-share computing with the introduction of the IBM PC. But beware of the Harvard dropout with new ideas about software.

Published on February 18th, 2008 under ,

Here Comes Trouble: Telephone Number Tyranny

Source: gigaom.com

The Internet domain name system emerged as an overlay of meaningless IP addresses 25 years ago, and yet the wait for a mechanism that would reduce the need to keep track of meaningless telephone numbers continues. Sure, the conversion to automated switching saved the telephone company from employing operators, but it shifted the burden of switching to the public. And as Edward Tuck explained in a 1996 IEEE Symposium speech, the creation of the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) did not necessarily improve telephone service:

Telephone service I had in 1984 was in most ways worse than the service I got when I was a little boy in the South in the 1930s. Then, I’d pick up the receiver, and the lady would say, “Number, please,” and I’d say, “I want my Mommy!” She might say, “Well, Skippy, she was over at Miz Ferguson’s, but she left there and now she’s at Miz Furrey’s. Somebody’s using the phone there right now, but I’ll break in and tell them you need your Mama.” We had call waiting, call forwarding, executive override and voice recognition. I didn’t even have to dial. Things went straight downhill from there.

Telephone companies continue to add annoyances, requiring the “1” for long distance, requiring area codes for local calls, and changing area codes to accommodate growth. In the case of caller ID, the telcos have the temerity to charge extra for the inadequacy of their services. ISPs certainly don’t enjoy a similar revenue stream for revealing the identity of the person sending email. Did anyone notice the Internet survives without directory assistance charging $1.50 to help people find URLs? Telephone companies charge for the privilege of an unlisted number, or for opting out of directory assistance. While on the Internet, obscurity remains free.

Technicians across the country stare into boxes of jumbled wires countless times every day, because telephone numbers reflect physical equipment in the field. But telephone numbers that reflect the general vicinity of a caller’s location represents a poor substitute for identity, and serve as a relic of the days before flat-rate calling. A new domain name assignment propagates across the global Internet in hours, but it can still take the telephone company a week to provision a telephone number. The persistence of telephone numbers reflects the long-standing pursuit of innovations that serve the telephone company, not telephone customers.

Progress in carrying voice over the Internet left the burden of telephone numbers in place. But while the 16-digit keypad may be ubiquitous, there is no imperative to use it. Why not utilize Internet and infotech platforms to recreate operator type functionality? Dial-by-name platforms work very well. Search engines turn the entire content of web sites into keyword alternatives for domain names, so why not allow callers to associate key word tags with their directory listing? Exchange keywords rather than telephone numbers with someone at a party or business meeting. Making users cope directly with telephone numbers makes no more sense than expecting people to navigate the Internet via IP addresses.

Published on February 7th, 2008 under ,

Fixed Mobile and Mobile VoIP Featured in VON Magazine

Source: andyabramson.blogs.com

Ken Camp has authored a really good story about Fixed Mobile Convergence and Mobile VoIP in VON Magazine.

Give it a read…it is well worth it.

Published on January 16th, 2008 under , , , , , ,

Here Comes Trouble: Infocom Voice

Source: gigaom.com

During the spring of 1995, I participated in a series of meetings at AT&T Bell Laboratories, at which management lamented the impending doom of the telephone business model. The looming threat, however, was neither MCI (which had instigated the breakup of AT&T) nor the Bell companies (which did eventually undermine and absorb AT&T). No, the once-dominant telco feared a $50 software product released by two 20-year-olds at a startup in Israel: Vocaltec Internet Phone, which made voice communication an application of the Internet.

The death of the telecom business remains a standard prediction, but telephone bills continue to arrive 12 years after Vocaltec introduced VoIP to the masses. ITXC (now a part of VSNL) used VoIP to help cut international calling rates to an average of 10 cents a minute currently from 99 cents a minute in 1995. Vonage gets credit as the first to offer flat-rate, unlimited usage plans, erasing the distinction between local and long-distance calling. But aside from price, the telecom business remains largely unchanged by VoIP.

Consider the improvement of infotech platforms since 1995. Intel et al remained true to Moore’s Law by expanding processor performance 100-fold, while the price performance improvements of storage, memory and many other components exceeded this pace. But although improved performance and falling costs usually combine to produce new applications, this does not seem to be the case for VoIP and the voice business.

Reducing the price of a telephone call does not erase all the frustrations associated with communication. Humans can detect sounds of up to 20kHz, yet the frequency response of the traditional telephone call has remained stuck at 3.3kHz since the 1930s. The audio quality of a telephone call compares unfavorably even to the 5.6kHz frequency response of AM radio; we still revert to military radio protocols ( “A” as in alpha and “T” as in tango) when spelling a word.

Miscommunication remains a significant source of daily frustration. CallerID seems to be the best telecom has to offer. (Imagine paying extra for the privilege of knowing who sent you an email.)

The differences in the pace of innovation between telecom and infotech can be traced to differences in their respective business models. Telecom companies chase profit growth through margin expansion, which requires controlling costs and resisting the potential for competition to reduce price (e.g. controlling supply).

Conversely, competition forces infotech companies to chase profit growth through revenue growth. This requires investment in the innovations necessary to create demand. The pace of innovation in communication promises to accelerate as the search for revenue growth leads infotech companies to pursue communication business more aggressively.

Developments in communication shape human history. The Renaissance followed the printing press because less expensive books produced educated citizens that demanded more representative government. The telephone offered more than simply a better telegraph. If the infocom sector can move beyond cheap telephone calls, it might finally represent the threat to the status quo imagined by my AT&T colleagues.

Published on December 10th, 2007 under ,

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